Republican Hopes of Turning California Red Evaporating

The Republican Party's hopes of winning the state of California may have taken a hit as the proportion of Republicans registering in the state has declined.

According to voter registration data, the number of Republicans in the state is falling.

Newsweek contacted the California GOP by email for comment.

Why It Matters

Historically, California has leaned Democratic. The state has elected a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But recent polls have indicated that the tide could be turning. The state shifted toward the GOP by 12 points in 2024 compared to 2020, with Donald Trump increasing his vote share in nearly every county. The Republicans also flipped three seats in the state Legislature last year.

This has led some Republican strategists to set their sights on California, with state Senate GOP Leader Brian Jones previously telling Newsweek: "Our mission is clear: break the Democratic supermajority and Fix California. As Senate minority leader, that means flipping four Senate seats next election. Californians are fed up with one-party rule."

What To Know

According to party registration data, the proportion of people in the state who have registered as Republicans has dropped from 28 percent in December 2024 to about 23 percent in June 2025.

At the same time, the proportion of those registering as Democrats has increased from about 43 percent in December 2024 to 46 percent in June 2025.

The proportion of independents has remained relatively stable.

Meanwhile, when only examining new voter registrations—those with no identified voting history—the proportion of new Republicans as a sub-section of the new electorate in general decreased from about 26 percent in December 2024 to 19 percent in June 2025.

The data was shared on X, formerly Twitter, by Paul Mitchell for the publication Capitol Weekly.

However, it is not over for the GOP since there is well over a year until voters head to the polls in the state.

What People Are Saying

Thad Kousser, professor of political science and co-director of the Yankelovich Center at the University of California, San Diego, told Newsweek: "Because the president's party so often loses state legislative seats just as they lose congressional seats in a midterm, California's GOP may be playing defense rather than offense in 2026. President Trump's immigration actions, which have been deeply unpopular in this deep blue state, along with his Medicaid and education cuts, may put some incumbent Republicans in danger. But over the long term, California's Republicans can have a realistic hope that the national gains their party made with a broad set of demographic groups will rejuvenate their fortunes in this state."

What Happens Next

As voters head to vote in the midterms, the California State Legislature elections will be held on November 3, 2026. All 80 seats in the California State Assembly (which has two-year terms) will be up for election. Meanwhile, 20 of the 40 seats in the California State Senate (which has four-year terms) will also be contested.