Elon Musk's New Political Party Could Be Major Blow to Republicans: Poll

A new poll revealed that Elon Musk's recently-announced America Party has garnered significant support from Republican voters, which could raise concern among GOP lawmakers ahead of the 2026 midterms.

What To Know

Republican support for Musk's America Party is significant in the context of U.S. electoral dynamics, where third parties have historically acted as spoilers, particularly for the party from which they split.

Musk's efforts have been viewed as a rebuke to the Trump administration and the fallout between him and President Donald Trump, as well as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which Musk strongly criticized for ballooning the national deficit. The billionaire CEO called the spending package "outrageous" and said he would help primary Republican lawmakers who voted for its passage.

Trump called Musk's plan to launch the America Party a "train wreck," adding that third parties create "complete and total destruction and chaos."

Why It Matters

A Quantus Insights survey, conducted from June 20 to July 2 and originally reported by the Miami Herald, found that 40 percent of U.S. voters would be likely to back the new party's candidates, with Republican respondents—especially men—demonstrating the highest levels of interest at 57 percent.

The survey results also show that 43 percent of female Republicans expressed readiness to support the America Party. In contrast, only 22 percent of male Democrats and 21 percent of female Democrats shared this sentiment.

Overall, 40 percent of respondents said they were either very likely (14 percent) or somewhat likely (26 percent) to support America Party candidates.

Among male Republicans, support rose to 57 percent, followed by 47 percent of male independents. By comparison, just 22 percent of male Democrats expressed openness to the new party.

Female Republicans and independents were also more likely to consider switching allegiance than their Democratic counterparts.

Narrow congressional majorities could make any prospective shift more decisive. Political experts have warned that the winner-takes-all system in U.S. elections amplifies the impact of even minor third-party movements on party control of the House and Senate.

A Viable Party or a 'Vanity Project'?

Barry Burden, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek on Thursday that Musk's association with the America Party remains to be seen—questioning whether it's a long-term political strategy or a short-term "vanity project."

He also said Musk's stake is unclear, as far as whether he will be the face of the new party or just a major financial backer.

"It is likely that America Party candidates will attract more Republicans than Democrats," Burden said. "One reason is that Musk is still seen favorably by Republicans in the electorate but is deeply under water among Democrats and independents.

"Trump is already distancing himself from Musk in a more deliberate way, but there will continue to be many MAGA supporters who are drawn to Musk's views about government spending, technology and trade," he added.

Another aspect to watch is young voters, he said. Minor parties historically get the most support from the youngest voters, and many who have supported Democrats over the years shifted to Trump in 2024.

Burden said Musk's party is likely to take some young voters from both sides of the aisle.

"Musk has said that he plans to back candidates only in a small number of districts and states, with the hopes of winning a few seeks to become a player in congressional negotiations," he said. "Those targeted races are mostly likely to be in deeply red areas where movement like his would get the most traction and Democrats were unlikely to win regardless."

What People Are Saying

Denny Salas, co-founder of Gotham Polling & Analytics and a Democratic strategist, told Newsweek on Thursday: "I believe there is enough pent-up anger within the American psyche to enable a third party, like the America Party, to successfully recruit legitimate candidates and gain the support of many voters. A likely problem I see is how sustainable and genuine this effort by Elon Musk is. Political parties aren't successful just because billionaires decide to start one on a whim; they succeed because they are built from the ground up through grassroots organizing."

Jay Oliver, 103.9 WRCN LI morning anchor and Republican commentator, told Newsweek on Thursday: "Third parties in this country have always been a disaster, from Teddy Roosevelt to Ross Perot. It never got the legs. Musk can actually do more harm than good, especially with his wealth to facilitate. And with midterm elections around the corner, it's a huge risk. I say stick to innovation, Elon, you're too valuable to waste from a political standpoint."

President Trump on Tuesday to reporters: "I think it'll help us. It'll probably help. Third parties have always been good for me. I don't know about Republicans, but for me..."

Republican Senator Ron Johnson to The Hill: "If he wants to ensure never returning to a pre-pandemic level of spending, never balancing our budget, that would be a good thing to do. ... He'd be splitting our party. We actually have some people concerned about the deficit. Democrats don't."

What Happens Next

The poll's findings come against a backdrop of public frustration with the two-party system. A 2024 Gallup poll found that 58 percent of American adults believe a third party is needed in the U.S., underscoring potentially fertile ground for Musk's initiative.