The 2026 Senate Midterm Map Looks Rough for Democrats

Republicans clinched control of the Senate on Tuesday, setting up a challenging situation for Democrats to overcome in 2026.

Earlier this week, Republicans flipped three Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, tipping the chamber's control away from the Democrats. As of Friday, the Republicans have 52 Senate seats and the Democrats 45.

Before this week's election, Democrats held a narrow majority of 51 seats (including four independents who caucus with the party), while the Republicans had 49.

Democrats trailed Republicans in all political races on Tuesday, with President-elect Donald Trump winning the White House, Republicans securing a Senate majority and the GOP possibly maintaining a GOP majority in the House. Not all House races have been called as of Friday morning.

Unlike the House, where candidates are up for reelection every two years, senators serve six-year terms.

Thirty-three Senate seats are open for election on November 3, 2026. Of those, 20 are held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats.

The following states will have Senate seats up for election that year: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming.

To flip the Senate in 2026, Democrats would need to win all 13 seats and flip at least three others.

While there are paths for Democrats to secure the majority, they currently seem less likely than Republicans holding their lead.

The following states are likely to have key races in the 2026 Senate elections.

Potential Seats to Flip

Maine

Maine is a political split state, with Republican Senator Susan Collins and independent Senator Angus King representing the state, which is led by Democratic Governor Janet Mills.

Collins has represented the state since 1997. She is considered a moderate Republican who spoke out against Donald Trump during his first term.

In her most recent election, in 2020, she won the seat with 51 percent of the vote, with the Democratic challenger garnering 42.4 percent. In 2014, she won by an even larger margin, 67 percent to 30.8 percent.

The Maine Senate seat could be a potential path for Democrats to flip a Republican seat, but given Collins' long electoral history and support, it is unlikely.

North Carolina

Republican Senator Thom Tillis has had two competitive elections in the state, having won the seat originally in 2014, 48.8 percent to Democrat Senator Kay Hagan's 47.3 percent.

In 2020, Tillis secured 48.7 percent of the vote, winning the seat again.

Given North Carolina's history of ticket splitting, most recently seen in this week's elections when a majority of voters backed Trump for president and Democrat Josh Stein for governor, it is possible Democrats could try to flip the state.

Potentially Contested Democrat-Held Seats

Georgia

In 2020, Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff won a tight Senate runoff election against Senator David Perdue. Ossoff clinched the seat by garnering 50.6 percent to Perdue's 49.4 percent.

Ossoff, who will run for reelection in 2026, is expected to face a tight race against a Republican candidate. To flip the Senate, it would be crucial for Democrats to keep Ossoff's seat, although this is likely to be a closely contested race.

Michigan

Democratic Senator Gary Peters took office in 2015, beating out the Republican challenger by 13.3 percentage points. In 2020, he was reelected by a much tighter margin, 49.9 percent to the Republican candidate's 48.2 percent.

Because Peters' victory margin shrank that year, this is a seat Republicans might work to flip. Securing his seat in 2026 would be essential for the Democratic Party's regaining control of the Senate.

New Hampshire

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen has held her seat in New Hampshire since 2009. In 2020, she secured the seat with an over 15-point lead, while in 2014 she had a closer race, winning 51.5 percent to a Republican challenger's 48.2 percent.

Democrats would need to keep the New Hampshire seat to flip the Senate.

While New Hampshire has two Democratic senators, the state's governor, Chris Sununu, and the Legislature are Republican.

Virginia

Democratic Senator Mark Warner assumed office in 2009 and will run for reelection in 2026. He narrowly secured the seat in 2014, with 49.1 percent of the vote versus his Republican challenger's 48.3 percent.

In 2020, he won the state with 56 percent of the vote.