Obama Coalition 'Turned Into the Trump Coalition,' Analysis Says

A new report shows the key reasons Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election.

According to analysis by the data firm Catalist that was shared with the Cook Political Report, the once reliable Obama coalition—young, diverse and urban—"turned into the Trump coalition." Their shift toward the Republican during the 2024 election resulted in Harris' loss.

The report added that Harris' loss stemmed from an unprecedented failure to mobilize new and infrequent voters, historically a core Democratic advantage.

Why It Matters

Despite her loss in the 2024 presidential race, Harris is viewed as a top contender for the 2028 election, which will likely see a crowded field of Democrats vying for the party's nomination. The former vice president hasn't said she plans to run and is also speculated to be considering a run for California's governorship in 2026.

Proponents of a Harris 2028 presidential run say the Democrat ran a good 2024 campaign despite difficult headwinds. They argue that she significantly narrowed the gap compared to President Joe Biden, who faced a flurry of bad polls after a televised debate against Donald Trump that preceded the Democrat's withdrawal from the race.

Others, however, argue that it's time for the party to embrace new leaders and that Harris' support for moderate Republicans, such as former Representative Liz Cheney, has cost the party among key voter groups.

What To Know

According to the newly released analysis, the electorate was more diverse and younger than ever in 2024. It was three points less white than in 2012, and voters under 45 made up 36 percent, twice their share from the year President Barack Obama won reelection.

Instead of leaning left as it had in the past, this same demographic coalition that had propelled Obama and Biden to victory shifted sharply toward Trump, marking a dramatic reversal in voting trends, according to the report.

Among the most notable changes was a sharp rightward turn among men of color. Harris performed six points worse among men than Biden did in 2020. That drop was even steeper among Latino men, where she underperformed Biden by 12 points, and Black men, where she fell short by seven.

Meanwhile, white men without a college degree—traditionally among the GOP's most dependable supporters—showed only a slight additional shift to the right, suggesting that Trump's gains came primarily from communities Democrats once considered part of their base.

Harris also failed to galvanize women, despite her historic candidacy.

Her support among women mirrored Biden's 2020 performance, and she did not exceed his margins with Black women. Harris also saw noticeable declines among Asian American and Pacific Islander women, where she underperformed Biden by four points, and Latinas, where she dropped seven points.

Young voters, typically the most Democratic-leaning age group, were another weak spot. Harris lost six points compared to Biden among young voters overall. The decline was especially steep among younger Latino voters, down 12 points, and younger Asian American and Pacific Islander voters, down nine. Among younger Black and white voters, the drop was less dramatic but still measurable at four points.

According to the report, the Harris campaign also failed to mobilize new and infrequent voters, who have typically leaned Democratic.

For Catalist, this was down to the Harris campaign's assumption that replicating the 2020 electorate would be sufficient to win.

While Trump's campaign focused on expanding the electorate by targeting less frequent and disengaged voters, Harris' strategy emphasized high turnout among reliable Democratic voters.

Ironically, the 2024 electorate was more dominated by frequent voters than any presidential election in recent memory. The data showed that 47 percent had cast ballots in each of the last four major elections—a sharp increase from 38 percent in 2020. Harris performed well with these "super voters," winning 50 percent of their votes—better than both Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016.

However, she lost ground among voters who had participated in fewer recent elections, who tend to be younger, more racially diverse, more urban and less likely to hold a college degree.

A key structural issue for Democrats in 2024 was the electorate's "churn," the replacement of old voters with new ones. Some 30 million 2020 voters stayed home in 2024, and they had leaned heavily Democratic, giving Biden an estimated 55.7 percent of their vote. Meanwhile, 26 million new voters emerged in 2024—4 million fewer than those who dropped off.

For the first time, Catalist's data showed, these new voters gave less than 50 percent of their support to the Democratic nominee, awarding Harris 48.5 percent.

Democratic strategist Max Burns and former Obama adviser Peter Loge offered blunt takeaways from the recent Catalist post-election report.

Burns argued the data simply confirms that key Democratic constituencies felt abandoned.

"Young people, especially young people of color, walked away from a party they felt didn't speak to their concerns," he told Newsweek. "So did Hispanic voters and Black men."

Burns noted that these groups have consistently told pollsters they left because Democrats failed to prioritize their issues: "Voters were clear that they elected Democrats to govern like Democrats, and that meant taxing the do-nothing rich, fixing our broken immigration system and fighting corporate greed."

He specifically criticized Kamala Harris' campaign for what he said was abandoning a message that once resonated.

"Harris was at her strongest when she was running on that kitchen table populist message, and her campaign's decision to sideline that message left a huge opening for Donald Trump to speak directly to Democrats' key voters," Burns said.

Still, he emphasized the party has a chance to recover: "These numbers are grim, but they aren't a death sentence for the Democratic Party."

He pointed to signs that frustrated voters are returning but warned: "If the party wants to KEEP those voters in 2026 and beyond, they will need to show their newfound populist voice is backed by a real desire to take tough votes and fight for working people."

Loge, while cautioning against overinterpreting a single report, echoed the concerns: "There is a lot Democrats can learn from the Catalist report. But it is also important not to say this is the final answer on anything."

Loge framed the 2024 results within a broader trend: "Incumbent parties across the political spectrum lost votes in 2024," he told Newsweek.

He argued many voters simply feel the system isn't working for them.

"We elect politicians to fix public problems. A lot of people feel like problems they care about aren't getting fixed, so they fire politicians in charge and bring in new ones," he said.

The real crisis, he suggested, is one of representation: "The system works reasonably well for wealthy and well-educated voters, who tend to be white. The system tends to fail those who are younger, poorer, and minorities."

Loge warned against what he sees as the Democratic tendency to chase perfect messaging strategies instead of listening.

"Democrats have a history of looking for the magic message or medium to solve all their electoral problems," he said. "Democrats need to talk about things people care about in ways that make sense."

Burns and Loge agreed that the election was decided by relatively narrow margins.

"President Trump received about 2.3 million more popular votes than Vice President Harris," Loge noted. "A few shifts of a few votes in a few places and we would be talking about the destruction of the Republican Party at the hands of Donald Trump."

What People Are Saying

Democratic strategist Max Burns: "I don't think the Catalist report will surprise anyone who was being honest about what the 2024 election data tells us. Young people, especially young people of color, walked away from a party they felt didn't speak to their concerns. So did Hispanic voters and Black men. Those voters have told pollsters time and again that they left the coalition because they felt Democrats weren't taking their core issues seriously.

"Voters were clear that they elected Democrats to govern like Democrats, and that meant taxing the do-nothing rich, fixing our broken immigration system and fighting corporate greed. Harris was at her strongest when she was running on that kitchen table populist message, and her campaign's decision to sideline that message left a huge opening for Donald Trump to speak directly to Democrats' key voters.

"Let's be clear: These numbers are grim, but they aren't a death sentence for the Democratic Party. In fact, as Trump's popularity has tanked and Democrats have learned how to fight back, we're already seeing many of those frustrated voters migrating back to Democrats. But if the party wants to KEEP those voters in 2026 and beyond, they will need to show their newfound populist voice is backed by a real desire to take tough votes and fight for working people."

Former Obama adviser Peter Loge: "There is a lot Democrats can learn from the Catalyst report. But it is also important not to say this is the final answer on anything.

"Harris lost for a lot of reasons, many of which the Catalyst report highlights. It is also true that incumbent parties across the political spectrum lost votes in 2024. Voters were concerned about the economy, the US border with Mexico, a Democratic Party that seemed out of touch with most Americans, and more.

"We elect politicians to fix public problems. A lot of people feel like problems they care about aren't getting fixed, so they fire politicians in charge and bring in new ones. In this case, the politicians in charge of the White House were Democrats. Those who feel the failures of policy are those who need the system to work the most and for whom it is working the least. The system works reasonably well for wealthy and well educated voters, who tend to be white. The system tends to fail those who are younger, poorer, and minorities. Voters for whom politics isn't working vote to change the politicians in charge.

"Democrats have a history of looking for the magic message or medium to solve all their electoral problems. The Catalyst report and other election post-mortems are pointing out Democrats should focus on talking to voters about what they actually care about, not what party leaders think they should care about. Democrats need to talk about things people care about in ways that make sense.

"A shift in any of these things could have swung enough votes to change the election outcome. President Trump received about 2.3 million more popular votes than Vice President Harris. That's roughly the population of Houston, Texas. A few shifts of a few votes in a few places and we would be talking about the destruction of the Republican Party at the hands of Donald Trump."

What Happens Next

Speculation has begun about the Democratic Party's contenders for the next presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

Update 5/23/25, 12:16 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Max Burns and Peter Loge.